From time to time I make large, overall assessments and predictions about the Mortgage Field Services Industry as a whole. In the same way that I have predicted the financial insolvency of the past five National Association of Mortgage Field Services (NAMFS) Regime Members months before anyone else knew, my predictions have always been One Hundred Percent Accurate. That is the reason why, love me or hate me; just like Rush Limbaugh, people come to Foreclosurepedia each and every day by the thousands.
I have noticed an enormous upswing in the REO to Sale Rehabs lately. Assurant Field Asset Services (AFAS) seems to be entering the game at a late stage with their recent post on LinkedIn. The reality, though, is that they are grasping at straws. The more scary reality is this: If NAMFS Regime Members cannot even foot the bill for simple grass cuts, do you really, REALLY believe they are capable of paying you for footing tens of thousands of dollars in material and labor?!
Look, this is a simple mathematics issue. Now, I am going to use some generalizations; however, they are pretty close to the mark. The Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis hit around the 2006 – 2007 time frame. RealtyTrac has some figures and pretty charts that allow everyone to pat each other on the back — remember, these same people whom screwed Americans out of their homes while enriching themselves. The reality is that the homes predominately remaining; the true zombie foreclosures and those which outfits like Safeguard Properties and the like left completely chock full of toxic mold and Vietnam like jungle yards, are what AFAS, Altisource and the rest of the dark pool are trying to get renovated for pennies on the dollar — if they even pay. A caveat on the pay part: I did an Altisource Rehab last year and you want to talk about a royal cluster fuck! Now, they did promise a plethora of the materials; the problem was that we couldn’t ever get the right stuff delivered and had to foot the bill out of pocket. That, combined with the fact that Altisource seems to have a hatred for anyone whom is in the United States or speaks English fluently and as a Primary Language, made the process much like dental extraction without anesthesia!
The vast majority of the homes out there, today, being rehabbed are 10+ years old. Look, in terms of age, the amenities which modern society is accustomed to make these homes worthless to anyone but the ma and pa rental portfolio types. What none of these people are talking about, either, is the fact that — AND EVERY SINGLE FIRM IS GUILTY OF THIS WHETHER BY OVERT OR BLIND EYE — an extremely large percentage of these homes have mold. The only thing ever done to the vast majority of these properties was the painting of some Kilz and a bit of Bleach. Bleach DOES NOT KILL MOLD! Fuck the, “It’s discoloration,” because if you wouldn’t live in it Heather Berghorst, we both know the reality!
When you are running 10/4 wire to cut costs in a patch job to meet code for a J Box, you have an issue. When modern homes and apartments are already WiFi with USB Ports in the outlets, simply adding some new carpet on top of old padding doesn’t make the sale. Let’s not bullshit around, either. For all the clowns out there whom believe that someone is going to drop $1400 a month on a mortgage and assume all liability for formica out of Singapore, when they can spend $750 and have free maintenance with granite counter tops, let’s just keep it real, ok?!
What is going on is that the vast majority of home purchases have been cash purchases by Institutional Investors. Now, about a year and a half ago I predicted this and I ALSO PREDICTED the rapid exodus towards the early to middle of 2014. Hmnn, tell me about Blackstone Invitations. Yeah, so let’s talk about the current cash purchases. Cash purchases accounted for 39% of total sales in Q1 2014, according to Morgan Stanley’s Vishwanath Tirupattur. So, we can draw the following conclusion: (1) traditional buyers are AWOL even with low mortgage rates; (2) actual purchases are dropping even though cash purchases look to be flooding the market; and (3) foreign nationals — 80% are Chinese in Irving, CA — have begun to make the run.
Screw the Obama Administration’s bullshit about a harsh winter causing declines in new starts. Did it snow in Southern Arizona? Hell, California is in a drought of Epic Proportions! I must have missed the blizzards down in Miami as well. Existing home sales, as the aforementioned dealt with ALL HOUSING, is anemic. I mean the Pox is upon the House of Foreclosures. Latin Americans are buying in Miami while the Chinese are hoarding California. Look, distressed purchases are down between 52 – 58 percent depending whom you speak to. So, let’s get back to that troubling thing called mathematics and do a few brain exercises, shall we?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released yet another revision showing that, as usual, BEA screwed the pooch correcting GDP Growth to a stellar NEGATIVE ONE PERCENT! Now, remember, earlier last year I predicted the correction coming into play Q4 2013 or Q1 2014. The last two quarters of 2013 was a crackhead view of the real condition of the economy. Now, two quarters in the negative and you have a bona fide recession — I never believed we left the Great Obama Depression, but hey. Look, the Eurozone is underwater; François Hollande has a stagnant growth report; Thailand is in the negative — folks, we are in a real world of shit!
We have a thing called Modern Money Mechanics which the Federal Reserve seems to base our fractional reserve monetary system upon — I say seems as all we have today is fiat currency. With the Fed tapering back its quantitative easing (QE); being that the Fed has artificially sustained a financial system doomed, it is the perfect storm. When you throw in a Trillion for the Democrats and a Trillion for the Republicans in alleged Stimulus Funds, you have the blue print for long term catastrophe. We are a little bit side tracked, so let me bring it back for those of you whom cannot connect the dots.
Why is it that we are seeing an extremely disproportionate amount of NAMFS Members leaving the Industry and/or becoming financially insolvent? The Black List aside, it is because of the fact that an artificial level of volume and inventory allowed for a Ponzi Scheme to easily operate. High volume means a huge supply of Contractors and steady income streams. When you trim the volume and income down to real world numbers you cannot float any longer. Heather Berghorst is a prime example. Berghorst floated a shit load of people on each other’s backs and attempted to say that I was insane. I called her bluff and now the NAMFS Regime has a disgraced Secretary — yeah, so much for those Canons of Ethics, huh?! I mean screw the illegal shit, look at a lot of the big names gone now: Midwest Metro and A&M Recovery (no website so I had to link to our article on Page One of Google) are prime examples. Look at those on the ropes: HomeStar, Sentinel (the HUD 3.8 is make or break) and AMS. I mean simply look at those whom have merged and the four big buyouts going on over this summer.
When you begin to bring a regulatory setting into the Mortgage Field Services Industry, it is going to look like Black Tuesday in 1929. I have seen a great proportion of the real books — not the front facing books — that many of these firms have and they are dire. Contractors have absolutely no idea what is getting ready to come down the pike by Q4 of this year. Look, everyone supported Buczek Enterprises and thought I was nuts. Everyone thought I was nuts about Berghorst Enterprises. Everyone thought I was nuts about Boyd Property Preservation. Yeah, well the phone didn’t stop ringing off the hook this weekend — many of the same Contractors whom told me Berghorst was going to pull it together and they just didn’t want to ruffle any feathers. Hmnn, tell me how that is working out for you now?!
For those of you whom are finally waking up and realizing that Reichsminister of Propaganda Terry Platt, with his Porn Store Comic Book Series to save the Industry, is full of shit, I highly recommend that you click the Big Thug on the Right Hand Side with the Baseball Bat and submit your Overdue Accounts TODAY! I do not see whom submits them; however, my Counter gives me the anonymous stats and we have almost 140 folks in the last 19 days! When the Commercial Debt Collectors begin to hit those 30 day marks and file the Negative Reports into Equifax, you people haven’t seen jack shit with respect to how cataclysmic it is going to become! The reason is that seemingly healthy firms whom get slammed with debt they didn’t publicly announce are going to take the healthy Contractors down with them.
The other spike I saw over the past week was the DUNS SAM Accounts. Foreclosurepedia has, for years, Consulted to many of the very same Contractors whom publicly condemn us as well as many of the larger Clients. Our Federal Contracting Package spiked to almost 20 Applications this past week. A huge upswing as I normally do about 4 a week. People have realized it makes FAR MORE SENSE to work for the US Government and GET PAID — get paid FAR MORE MONEY — than file lawsuits and go bankrupt. Look, Eric Miller (I don’t even waste time spelling out his fleecing of the payroll anymore as he is unimportant these days) has difficulty with both grammar and the vernacular. Do you really think that he and his Board of Directors — remember that sterling Secretary and the now infamous and missing Membership Chairman — have a strategy? Shit, their only strategy was to shovel Aspen Grove Solutions (another prediction I made which came to pass) down everyone’s throats to make money on a different angle as the Ponzi like angles were drying up. No two ways about it, folks. Diversify or do everyone the favor of dying out quietly.