The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and it’s a cause for concern. Forecasters are predicting an “above-normal” season, with a higher-than-average number of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. This is particularly significant because NOAA’s May forecast is the most active ever issued at this time of year.
The official hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but NOAA’s predictions offer a glimpse into what we can expect. Here’s a breakdown of their key findings:
- Storm Surge: NOAA predicts a range of 17 to 25 named storms, which are tropical cyclones with sustained winds of 39 mph (63 kph) or higher. This is well above the average of 14 named storms per year.
- Hurricane Watch: Out of the predicted named storms, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes, meaning winds reach 74 mph (119 kph) or higher. The average number of hurricanes per year is 7.
- Major Threat: The most concerning aspect of the forecast is the prediction of 4 to 7 major hurricanes. These are Category 3 or higher storms, packing winds exceeding 111 mph (178 kph) and capable of causing devastating damage.
The confidence level in these predictions is also noteworthy. NOAA forecasters have a 70% confidence in the predicted ranges. This means there’s a 70% chance that the actual number of storms will fall within the specified range.
Why the Active Season?
Several factors are contributing to the anticipated above-normal activity.
- Warm Waters: The Atlantic Ocean is currently experiencing near-record warm temperatures, which provide fuel for tropical storm development. Warm ocean water allows these storms to form and strengthen.
- La Nina’s Influence: The Pacific climate phenomenon known as La Nina is expected to develop. La Nina conditions typically lead to reduced wind shear in the Atlantic, an atmospheric condition that can hinder storm formation. With less wind shear, storms can develop more easily.
- Trade Wind Troubles: A decrease in Atlantic trade winds is also anticipated. These winds help to suppress storm formation, so weaker trade winds create a more favorable environment for cyclones.
Where to Avoid Work
Florida presents a unique set of challenges for contractors doing hurricane repair work, and those challenges are often intertwined with the troubled state of insurance. Here’s a breakdown of the issues:
Contractor Headaches
High Demand, Low Supply: After a major hurricane, demand for qualified contractors skyrockets. This can lead to a shortage of qualified workers, driving up labor costs and making it difficult for homeowners to find someone to do the repairs.
Material Mania: The surge in demand extends to building materials as well. Supplies like roofing shingles, windows, and lumber can become scarce, leading to delays and inflated prices.
Insurance Wrangling: Dealing with insurance companies can be a nightmare for contractors. Often, insurers undervalue repairs, forcing contractors to fight for fair compensation. This can lead to lengthy delays in getting repairs completed.
Fraudulent Activity: Unfortunately, some bad actors take advantage of the chaos after a hurricane. Unscrupulous contractors may offer shoddy work at inflated prices, or disappear with deposits without completing the job. This can damage the reputation of honest contractors and make homeowners wary.
Insurance Issues
Denials and Delays: Florida homeowners frequently face denials or delays on insurance claims after hurricanes. Insurers may deny coverage for certain types of damage or find reasons to minimize the payout. This leaves homeowners struggling to afford repairs.
Lawsuit Lottery: Florida has a high number of lawsuits against insurance companies related to hurricane damage. This adversarial environment drives up costs for insurers, which can lead to higher premiums for homeowners.
Company Exodus: Due to the high cost of claims and lawsuits, some insurance companies are simply leaving the Florida market altogether. This reduces homeowner choice and can make it difficult to obtain coverage.
Contractors and Inspectors Have Zero Protection from Litigation
Florida’s Assignment of Benefits (AOB) Clause: This clause allows homeowners to transfer their insurance benefits to the contractor performing the repairs. This can incentivize some homeowners to sue the contractor if they’re unhappy with the repairs or the price, even if the disagreement stems from issues with the insurance company’s payout.
Frivolous Lawsuits: Unfortunately, Florida has a reputation for a high number of lawsuits against contractors, some of which may be baseless. This can be due to misunderstandings about the scope of work, disagreements with the insurance company’s payout that get directed at the contractor, or even attempts to exploit the AOB clause.
High Cost of Defense: Even if a lawsuit is ultimately dismissed, the cost of defending against it can be substantial for contractors. This can eat into profits and discourage smaller companies from taking on hurricane repair work.
The Impact on Contractors
Reduced Participation: The fear of lawsuits can deter some qualified contractors from entering the Florida market altogether, especially smaller companies. This reduces the pool of available contractors, making it harder for homeowners to find someone to do the repairs, especially in remote areas.
Increased Costs: To mitigate the risk of lawsuits, some contractors may raise their prices or require hefty upfront deposits. This can make repairs even more expensive for homeowners already struggling with hurricane damage and insurance issues.
Defensive Practices: The threat of litigation can also lead contractors to adopt overly cautious practices. They may be hesitant to take on complex repairs or may require extensive documentation and detailed contracts, which can slow down the repair process.
