All the signs are there regardless of the best efforts by Jay Powell and the Fed attempting to keep their crony brethren on Wall Street afloat. A first year economist at a junior college would be able to track the tea leaves scattered all around. First, when it comes to housing, mortgage rates are above 5% and climbing by the day. The Fed is hammering a 50 basis point rate hike with more coming throughout the year. Added to that, is the reality that the housing market has collapsed, by in large, for the vast majority of the United States.
Sales of new single-family houses in March, in terms of the seasonally adjusted annual rate, fell 8.6% for the month and by 12.6% year-over-year to a rate of 772,000 houses, according to data from the Census Bureau today.
The inventory of new single-family houses for sale rose to 407,000 houses in March (seasonally adjusted), the largest unsold inventory since August 2008, up by 52% from a year ago. This amounts to 6.4 months of supply at the current rate of sales.
There is an entire panoply of causes impacting the extreme rate of inflation. And when coupled with a collapsed supply chain, persistently high fuel prices, and a raging war in the Ukraine which is constricting food supplies the reality is both the US government and the Fed are incapable of alleviating the crisis and only a major recession will be capable of cooling down the environment.
The irony here is that for the past 30+ years National Association of Mortgage Field Services (NAMFS) members have refused to allow a single penny in rate hikes. And as a direct result, a recent NAMFS report documented a 70% attrition rate in Labor due to their policy. And as we continue to witness a 2000+ point drop over the past 72 hours and climbing in the Dow, the reality is that the Labor so desperately needed by the Industry is gone and will not return.
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